Spoiled Again

Poker was all the rage on TV a couple of years ago. Its popularity has waned a bit, but the premier event - the World Series of Poker - still has a huge presence on ESPN. The WSOP is played in the summer, but ESPN doesn't broadcast it until the fall. And every year, i end up finding out in advance who won the Main Event. I don't want to learn, but someone always spoils it.

This year, i was extra diligent about not reading anything about it. Lo and behold, i thought i had made it, still in the dark* going into this week when it would finally be on tv. I set the DVR to record last night's final episode, because i was flying home from Boston, planning to watch it today. So what happens... i get online this morning to check email and football news quickly before driving the kids to school, and the big headline story on Yahoo is, of course, about the WSOP champion. And, of course, my eye catches the info before i realize it. Spoiled again!

What's even more amazing to me (i didn't discover this until a few minutes ago) is that ESPN was running a crawl yesterday that revealed the winner, and promoted their own show for later that night to see it happen. Who spoils their own show for their own viewers?

* I also just learned that the reason i was still in the dark was that the format had changed this year, and that play had actually been suspended back in the summer when they got to the final 9, and was resumed on Monday.

Peace of Mind

I think most of my readers know that i recently left my job and am in the process of figuring out our next steps. Part of that process is keeping my hook in the water in the insurance field and pursuing potential positions where they may be appealing. One possible opportunity came to my attention pretty quickly - a gig up in Boston.

So i'm headed to the airport on Monday, for the trip up there, still full of uncertainty about what might happen. I sometimes drive in silence - no radio, no CDs, etc - and enjoy the racing random thoughts in my brain. But about halfway there i kicked on the radio, and the song that was playing was by the rock band Boston. Hmm, coincidence?

This particular song was "Peace of Mind". Check out its lyrics...

Now, if you're feeling kinda low bout the dues you've been paying
Future's coming much too slow
And you wanna run but somehow you just keep on staying
Can't decide on which way to go

I understand about indecision
But I don't care if I get behind
People living in competition
All I want is to have my peace of mind

Now you're climbing to the top of the company ladder
Hope it doesn't take too long
Can't you see there'll come a day when it won't matter?
Come a day when you'll be gone

I understand about indecision
But I don't care if I get behind
People living in competition
All I want is to have my peace of mind

Take a look ahead
Take a look ahead

Now everybody's got advice they just keep on giving
Doesn't mean too much to me
Lots of people have to make believe they're living
Can't decide who they should be

I understand about indecision
But I don't care if I get behind
People living in competition
All I want is to have my peace of mind

Take a look ahead
Take a look ahead
Look ahead

Again, coincidence?

As Jesus taught us in his sermon on the mount, we do well to store up treasures in heaven, not here on earth. To seek Him first, His kingdom, His righteousness. And, as Keith Green sings, He'll take care of the rest. Boston's Tom Scholz, perhaps an unwitting theologian, would seem to concur.

Reading the Exit Poll

Exit poll observations from the 2008 Presidential election. All data from CNN.

• Why are women over-sampled, at 53% of those polled? Is that a fair representation of total voters?
  
• 55% of whites for JM, 4% of blacks, and only 32% of Latinos. A reformed GOP coalition MUST recapture or bring in Hispanics
  
• GOP must fashion educational tools for young voters. All they've known is Bush; young voters need to see a broader perspective of the GOP's history and principles.
  
• JM won white independents, at 49-47, but BO won self-described moderates at 60-39
  
• Would like to see breakdown between white Catholics and non-white Catholics
  
• JM wins marrieds at 51-47, but loses singles at 33-65.
  
• Mothers went to BO at 57-41. Surprised at that margin, though it comes mostly from single mothers (74-25).
  
• 28% say they are not worried about another terrorist attack, and this group went to BO at 67-30. Of the remaining 70%, they went to JM at 50-48. Hopeful justification?
  
• Contrasted to the above, those worried about health care costs (fully 66%) went to BO at 60-38. Those not worried went to JM at 56-42. Interesting. Similar results when asked about worries about the economy. Fully half at "very worried" and they went to BO at 59-38, while every other group, even those "somewhat worried", went to JM with comfortable margins.
  
• Most folks didn't buy BO's message about a "tax cut" for 95%, but it resonated with enough. A large majority (71%) believe their taxes will go UP under Obama, and they went to JM at 55-43. Of the 27% who believe their taxes will not go up under Obama, they went to BO at 82-16. Wow. Kool-aid drinkers or non-workers?
  
• Very surprised to see that the correlation with "confidence that the votes will be counted accurately" was in favor of BO. Those not confident (a small group at 9%) went with JM at 53-42. Preemptive sour grapes?
  
• Plenty of evidence that BO benefited from a cult of personality. In the % of respondents who believe that "only Obama" has the right experience, or judgment, or cares about you. At the same time, evidence that voters wanted leadership change to see if the economy could get back on track, and would likely have voted for whomever the Dem was.
  
• I can't help but wonder if voting against the bailout package would have turned the tide for JM. 56% opposed the bailout, and BO kept those at 50-48. Missed political opportunity? (Although it was of little help to Elizabeth Dole)
  
• Feelings on Iraq War were strongly correlated, but you wonder how much is causation in a reverse way. That is, BO supporters adopted his stances, vs. ideologies adopting a candidate. I know that tons of folks supported BO because of his stance on the Iraq war, but i'd guess it also works the other way. (I saw this with Huckabee supporters deciding that the FairTax was the greatest thing ever.)
  
• VP Palin was not a factor in JM's defeat, despite the left's hopes to stab the religious right (again). 60% said that Palin was a factor in their choice, and of this group, they went to JM 56-43.
  
• I've been saying all along that this election was about GWB, even more so than the 2000 election was about Bill Clinton. 50% strongly disapprove of GWB and they went BO at 82-16. But that's it. Even those that somewhat disapprove of GWB went to JM at a whopping 65-31.
  

Electoral College Prediction

I am predicting 322 electoral college votes for Barack Obama, well more than enough to clinch the nomination for President (it only takes 270). And i believe the total is more likely to be higher than 322 than to be lower.

To get to the 322, you can take John Kerry's 2004 total of 252, and then convert these states from GOP to Dem: Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio.

I have a history of pessimism, having expecting GWB to lose in 2004. The tides of history are just too strong, however, this time around. Parties in power when the economic indicators are where they are just do not stay in power. Even without Iraq malaise, the GOP really had no shot this year, as much as i wanted to believe otherwise when Mike Huckabee was running.

If you want to play around with your own projections, there's a nice map at 270towin.

Farewell to AOL

AOL has decided to shut down many of its more helpful features: Journals (blogs), Hometown (where our family website is located), and their Photo site. So i have moved my two AOL Journals here to Blogger, and merged them back together into a single Mike's Musings blog.

All the prior posts - except for a handful of administative posts - should still be here. Some of the photos may be missing soon.

I still have no idea what to do about our family website.

P.S. We are keeping our AOL email addresses.

Bailout 08 = Iraq 02?

Just read an interesting article - written about a month ago - suggesting that the 2008 Congressional vote on the financial bailout package will be for the GOP what the 2002 vote authorizing the use of force in Iraq turned out to be for Democrats. In other words, if you want to be a viable candidate in 2012, you better have voted AGAINST the bailout.

For the sake of my tax burden, i hope that's not true, but rather that the plan actually works. I have serious doubts, however, and expect that the writer's thesis is likely to prove prescient, and that Mike Huckabee - and a majority of Americans - will be proved right yet again.

Encounter in the Park

Last weekend, with our beautiful weather, we wanted to get the kids outside for some play.  So we took them to a local city park.  As we arrived, there was a group of folks at the picnic tables, obviously celebrating a kid's birthday.  David asked, innocently enough (and thankfully out of earshot), "don't they have a home?"

Yes, David, our 3 year old.  I suppose this might somehow reflect poorly on our parenting skills, but i thought it was humorous.

Rescue Plan! Comin' to the Rescue!

All the buzz in Washington these days is the euphemistically termed "rescue plan" for our struggling economy.   We're not supposed to call it a bailout, even though the essence of the deal is that financial firms will be bailed out of their shoulda-seen-it-coming, too-aggressive mortgage loan deals. 

This thing is so widespread because everyone wanted in on the gravy train.  It was the very definition of a market bubble, even though the residue from the last bubble (dot-coms anyone?) still hadn't evaporated.  But you gotta get yours while the gettin's good.  There are fortunes to be made, bonuses to be "earned".  Everyone associated with the mortgage side was the belle of the ball there for a while.

Meanwhile, the Miss Prudences sat on the side like wallflowers, with no one to dance with.  Watching the glitzy belles twirl around the floor, dizzyingly flirting with a bevy of suitors.  And when the recklessness spun out of control, as it always does, the belles limped back, asking the wallflowers for a lift home.

OK, i've stretched the metaphor too far.  Let's return to DC and the scary proposition of all the pork-barrel-hogs banding together for a "solution".  It's our Rescue Plan, Coming to the Rescue!  I call it that, because it reminds me of the Rescue Pack from the kids' TV show Go, Diego, Go!  It's this dangerous idea that the federal government can just pony up more cash to solve any problem.  Just raise the debt ceiling and we can do it!

David Turns 3

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(A Couple) Quick Olympic Thoughts

The 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing (btw, it's pronounced as a "j", not a "z") were the best Olympics games that i can remember, since probably 1984 in Los Angeles.  While i had a great time being in Atlanta in 1996, it just didn't compare to these games.

NBC really blew it by not covering more of the Decathlon.  I think it's the premier event of the Olympics.  When you also consider that an American won the event, it's mind-boggling that NBC didn't give up 2+ primetime hours of coverage.  A very telegenic, family-man American.  Bryan Clay could have been a media superstar.

Instead, NBC gave us a nice little backstory, a few minutes long, about 30 seconds of highlights from the first 9 events of the decathlon, and then full coverage of the last event, the 1500m run.  Clay had built such a huge lead that all he had to do in the 1500m was not quit, and so most of what American saw of Bryan Clay was a guy jogging around the track in dead-last.  Not the picture of the world-class athlete that he is.

Just a colossal missed opportunity!  NBC couldn't have cut a couple of hours from the incessant diving coverage?  Did we really need to see the prelims of synchronized platform diving?