I am predicting 322 electoral college votes for Barack Obama, well more than enough to clinch the nomination for President (it only takes 270). And i believe the total is more likely to be higher than 322 than to be lower.
To get to the 322, you can take John Kerry's 2004 total of 252, and then convert these states from GOP to Dem: Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio.
I have a history of pessimism, having expecting GWB to lose in 2004. The tides of history are just too strong, however, this time around. Parties in power when the economic indicators are where they are just do not stay in power. Even without Iraq malaise, the GOP really had no shot this year, as much as i wanted to believe otherwise when Mike Huckabee was running.
If you want to play around with your own projections, there's a nice map at 270towin.
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