Reading the Exit Poll

Exit poll observations from the 2008 Presidential election. All data from CNN.

• Why are women over-sampled, at 53% of those polled? Is that a fair representation of total voters?
  
• 55% of whites for JM, 4% of blacks, and only 32% of Latinos. A reformed GOP coalition MUST recapture or bring in Hispanics
  
• GOP must fashion educational tools for young voters. All they've known is Bush; young voters need to see a broader perspective of the GOP's history and principles.
  
• JM won white independents, at 49-47, but BO won self-described moderates at 60-39
  
• Would like to see breakdown between white Catholics and non-white Catholics
  
• JM wins marrieds at 51-47, but loses singles at 33-65.
  
• Mothers went to BO at 57-41. Surprised at that margin, though it comes mostly from single mothers (74-25).
  
• 28% say they are not worried about another terrorist attack, and this group went to BO at 67-30. Of the remaining 70%, they went to JM at 50-48. Hopeful justification?
  
• Contrasted to the above, those worried about health care costs (fully 66%) went to BO at 60-38. Those not worried went to JM at 56-42. Interesting. Similar results when asked about worries about the economy. Fully half at "very worried" and they went to BO at 59-38, while every other group, even those "somewhat worried", went to JM with comfortable margins.
  
• Most folks didn't buy BO's message about a "tax cut" for 95%, but it resonated with enough. A large majority (71%) believe their taxes will go UP under Obama, and they went to JM at 55-43. Of the 27% who believe their taxes will not go up under Obama, they went to BO at 82-16. Wow. Kool-aid drinkers or non-workers?
  
• Very surprised to see that the correlation with "confidence that the votes will be counted accurately" was in favor of BO. Those not confident (a small group at 9%) went with JM at 53-42. Preemptive sour grapes?
  
• Plenty of evidence that BO benefited from a cult of personality. In the % of respondents who believe that "only Obama" has the right experience, or judgment, or cares about you. At the same time, evidence that voters wanted leadership change to see if the economy could get back on track, and would likely have voted for whomever the Dem was.
  
• I can't help but wonder if voting against the bailout package would have turned the tide for JM. 56% opposed the bailout, and BO kept those at 50-48. Missed political opportunity? (Although it was of little help to Elizabeth Dole)
  
• Feelings on Iraq War were strongly correlated, but you wonder how much is causation in a reverse way. That is, BO supporters adopted his stances, vs. ideologies adopting a candidate. I know that tons of folks supported BO because of his stance on the Iraq war, but i'd guess it also works the other way. (I saw this with Huckabee supporters deciding that the FairTax was the greatest thing ever.)
  
• VP Palin was not a factor in JM's defeat, despite the left's hopes to stab the religious right (again). 60% said that Palin was a factor in their choice, and of this group, they went to JM 56-43.
  
• I've been saying all along that this election was about GWB, even more so than the 2000 election was about Bill Clinton. 50% strongly disapprove of GWB and they went BO at 82-16. But that's it. Even those that somewhat disapprove of GWB went to JM at a whopping 65-31.
  

Electoral College Prediction

I am predicting 322 electoral college votes for Barack Obama, well more than enough to clinch the nomination for President (it only takes 270). And i believe the total is more likely to be higher than 322 than to be lower.

To get to the 322, you can take John Kerry's 2004 total of 252, and then convert these states from GOP to Dem: Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio.

I have a history of pessimism, having expecting GWB to lose in 2004. The tides of history are just too strong, however, this time around. Parties in power when the economic indicators are where they are just do not stay in power. Even without Iraq malaise, the GOP really had no shot this year, as much as i wanted to believe otherwise when Mike Huckabee was running.

If you want to play around with your own projections, there's a nice map at 270towin.

Bailout 08 = Iraq 02?

Just read an interesting article - written about a month ago - suggesting that the 2008 Congressional vote on the financial bailout package will be for the GOP what the 2002 vote authorizing the use of force in Iraq turned out to be for Democrats. In other words, if you want to be a viable candidate in 2012, you better have voted AGAINST the bailout.

For the sake of my tax burden, i hope that's not true, but rather that the plan actually works. I have serious doubts, however, and expect that the writer's thesis is likely to prove prescient, and that Mike Huckabee - and a majority of Americans - will be proved right yet again.

(Another) New Blog

I can't help myself. I started another new blog, and it's getting most of my blogging attention lately. This new blog is called "Huck the System". Its theme is the Presidential candidacy of Mike Huckabee, about whom i've written a few times here. If you're curious about that name, you'll find an early post in that blog that explains it.