I am predicting 322 electoral college votes for Barack Obama, well more than enough to clinch the nomination for President (it only takes 270). And i believe the total is more likely to be higher than 322 than to be lower.
To get to the 322, you can take John Kerry's 2004 total of 252, and then convert these states from GOP to Dem: Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio.
I have a history of pessimism, having expecting GWB to lose in 2004. The tides of history are just too strong, however, this time around. Parties in power when the economic indicators are where they are just do not stay in power. Even without Iraq malaise, the GOP really had no shot this year, as much as i wanted to believe otherwise when Mike Huckabee was running.
If you want to play around with your own projections, there's a nice map at 270towin.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Farewell to AOL
AOL has decided to shut down many of its more helpful features: Journals (blogs), Hometown (where our family website is located), and their Photo site. So i have moved my two AOL Journals here to Blogger, and merged them back together into a single Mike's Musings blog.
All the prior posts - except for a handful of administative posts - should still be here. Some of the photos may be missing soon.
I still have no idea what to do about our family website.
P.S. We are keeping our AOL email addresses.
All the prior posts - except for a handful of administative posts - should still be here. Some of the photos may be missing soon.
I still have no idea what to do about our family website.
P.S. We are keeping our AOL email addresses.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Bailout 08 = Iraq 02?
Just read an interesting article - written about a month ago - suggesting that the 2008 Congressional vote on the financial bailout package will be for the GOP what the 2002 vote authorizing the use of force in Iraq turned out to be for Democrats. In other words, if you want to be a viable candidate in 2012, you better have voted AGAINST the bailout.
For the sake of my tax burden, i hope that's not true, but rather that the plan actually works. I have serious doubts, however, and expect that the writer's thesis is likely to prove prescient, and that Mike Huckabee - and a majority of Americans - will be proved right yet again.
For the sake of my tax burden, i hope that's not true, but rather that the plan actually works. I have serious doubts, however, and expect that the writer's thesis is likely to prove prescient, and that Mike Huckabee - and a majority of Americans - will be proved right yet again.
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