For the 2005 NCAA Men's Tournament, i looked at the FG% statistics for each team, both offensively and defensively, and both in the context of their conferences and then against the field of 64. I adjusted the offensive FG% to account for 3-pointers, but couldn't find detailed enough stats to do so on defense (i don't think it would matter anyway).
By this metric, the surprising top team was Utah State, a 14 seed. So obviously i don't have a perfect metric here, but i do think it will be a good guide. And i gave it heavy weighting in my picks.
First round upsets: Utah State over Arizona, St. Marys over Southern Illinois, Creighton over West Virginia, New Mexico over Villanova, and NC State over Charlotte (don't really think this is an upset).
Second round upsets: Utah State over LSU, Utah over Oklahoma, Cincy over Kentucky, Pacific over Washington.
My Elite Eight: Illinois, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Gonzaga, Florida (can't pick Carolina to win 3 games; pained me enough to pick them to win 2), Kansas, Duke, and Utah.
Final Four: Duke/Kansas, and Illinois/Louisville
Duke beats Louisville in a rematch of the 1986 championship game.
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