Election Day (and Night) Saga

Election Day lately has become like Super Bowl Sunday.  Lots of anticipation leading up to it, then hours glued to the TV seeing how it turns out.

Day began early, at Julie & i wanted to get to the polls as they opened at 630am.  Unfortunately, this was a very popular idea, and by the time we arrived, the line looked to be about 2 hours long.  I went on to work, but Julie stuck around.  She made it out around 815am.

I came back to vote just after lunch, and was surprised to find almost no line.  I was in & out in 15 minutes.

Came home to follow the day's events on TV and the web.  Started reading all the web & blog chatter about the exit polls, and how they were looking VERY good for Kerry.  Then saw that the online betting sites were switching heavily to Kerry's favor (Bush had been the favorite for a while), so much that the markets couldn't really keep up with the line.  By evening newstime, Bush was listed as a 3-1 underdog.

Knowing this, it was easy to read the unspoken sentiments of the news anchors and pundits.  The Bush camp was reportedly "subdued", and the Kerry camp "optimistic".   It was going to be a John Kerry night, just as i had predicted. 

The first states polls closed at 7pm, with the key indicator the state of Virginia.  Networks said it was too close to call.  Not good news.  Then, at 730pm, we had NC.  Also too close to call.  What?  There's no way that Bush could lose NC.

So, at this point, i sought out the exit polls online, finding them in great detail on CNN's website.  I immediately noticed the disparity between men and women.  Not in who they voted for, but in what % of the poll respondents were men, and what % were women.  Some of the state exit polls had a 10-15 point gap between men and women.  So, women were being over-weighted if you just looked at the state totals.  This was skewing the numbers significantly in Kerry's favor (since men tend to support Bush more strongly).

There were probably other skewings in the weightings.  Most notably, i expect, was the weight given to self-described Republicans.  Historically, more folks call themselves Democrats than Republicans.  But, yesterday, for the first time in maybe forever, the two groups were equally represented at the polls. 

Also, take a look at how Bush fared with the given demographic segments compared to 2000.  He improved with both men (+2) and women (+5).  He improved with Blacks and Hispanics.  He improved all over the board.  In fact, when you look at the exit polls this way, the nationwide results -- a 3 point Bush victory -- follow quite naturally.

So this analysis was my first inkling of hope.  The second was a Bush operative reporting on county-by-county returns in Florida (a state where the exit polls predicted a Bush loss), saying that Bush was improving on his performance in 2000.  My mood begins to lighten.  There's a spring in my channel switching.

As the real votes start to roll in, there are no real early surprises.  Red states stay red; blue states stay blue.  The predictions were right -- just watch Ohio.  And we watched Ohio until about 2 in the morning before turning in for the night.  It looked pretty much over from my reading of the Ohio vote.  With Ohio, Bush had at least a 269-269 tie, and would then win in the House of Representatives tie-breaker (assume no faithless electors).  And New Mexico was looking good.

Just got a few hours sleep, as the phone rang at 6-something am (one of Caroline's friends).  Once i was awake, i had to turn the news back on, and see what had happened.  Still no resolution.  I was in no shape to go to work, so continued watching until Kerry conceded just before lunch.