A number of smart people that i respect and admire, including my brother, expect George W. Bush to win the 2004 Presidential Election with surprising ease. Maybe it's just nervous pessimism, but i'm not convinced.
I wouldn't be surprised if we had a reverse of 2000, with GWB winning the popular vote, but Kerry winning the Electoral College. I'm sure legions of Bush-haters would consider that poetic justice.
My Electoral College prediction is:
Kerry = 272
Bush = 266
Electoral Vote Calculator -- go here to play with various scenarios
My allocation of battleground states:Kerry: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Bush: Florida, Colorado, Iowa, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada
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