NCAA Picks - Women

No analytical approach here; all heart.  And my heart is with the Lady Bears of Baylor, the #2 seed in the region where UNC is #1.  I have seen the Tar Heels play, and while they deserve their seed, they aren't that great, and i think Baylor should beat them.  UNC has a great PG in Latta, but the Bears could dominate inside.  And Baylor has the better coach.

Duke, on the other hand, is not nearly as good this year as they have been recently.  They remind me of the 1987 men's team, the year after Dawkins and company graduated, leaving a senior Tommy Amaker to lead the way with an otherwise young team.  Alana Beard was the Dawkins of the women's program, and she graduated last year.  And while they Devils have talent, i don't see them as cohesive or tough enough to challenge for the title.

With Tennessee and Connecticut not as dominant as they have been in the past, this would be the perfect year for Baylor to go all the way, and secure my alma mater's 2nd national championship in the past 12 months (men's tennis was the other one).

NCAA Picks - Men

For the 2005 NCAA Men's Tournament, i looked at the FG% statistics for each team, both offensively and defensively, and both in the context of their conferences and then against the field of 64.  I adjusted the offensive FG% to account for 3-pointers, but couldn't find detailed enough stats to do so on defense (i don't think it would matter anyway).

By this metric, the surprising top team was Utah State, a 14 seed.  So obviously i don't have a perfect metric here, but i do think it will be a good guide.  And i gave it heavy weighting in my picks.

First round upsets:  Utah State over Arizona, St. Marys over Southern Illinois, Creighton over West Virginia, New Mexico over Villanova, and NC State over Charlotte (don't really think this is an upset).

Second round upsets: Utah State over LSU, Utah over Oklahoma, Cincy over Kentucky, Pacific over Washington.

My Elite Eight: Illinois, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Gonzaga, Florida (can't pick Carolina to win 3 games; pained me enough to pick them to win 2), Kansas, Duke, and Utah.

Final Four: Duke/Kansas, and Illinois/Louisville

Duke beats Louisville in a rematch of the 1986 championship game.

Forward for a Friend

A good friend of mine from my Atlanta days is putting together a book for his son, and asked a few folks to contribute something for the book's forward.  This is what i sent him:

I don't remember exactly how or when i first met your Dad.  It wasn't that he was unremarkable, but rather that i was in the midst of falling in love, getting married, and becoming a dad myself -- all of which crowded out most other memories.  But i know that we were living in the Atlanta area, working for the same auto insurance company.

And over these years, i have grown in admiration for your Dad, despite my having moved to another state, and seeing him only once or twice a year, when we get together for a fantasy sports draft.

Your Dad has an awesome love for you and your family, an unquenchable love for God, and a passion for friendships.  He has a unique and entertaining writing style, demonstrated in his email missives about life and faith.  These in-box gems at once challenge us, mystify us, and make us laugh.  

I write at times, too, though usually less publically in a journal.  I wanted to close with something i wrote when my own son was born.  This was written on the first day of the new millenium, when my son Jackson was one day old:

"... it's difficult to imagine your future.  Not only what your 21st century world will bring, but also, and more relevantly, your role in it.   It's always a Daddy's dream and hope that his kids exceed him, especially his sons.  Dreams & hopes...

• To take all the greatness you are already blessed with, by God, and make the best of it. 
• To know, appreciate, hone & use your talents. 
• To aspire to God-directed greatness.
• To seek and face challenges and never settle for the mundane.
• To be a man of God, learned in His Word and shaped by His love
• To listen well
• To have balance between all that will compete for your attention
• To value integrity & purity
• To make wise choices
• To dream of greatness, for yourself and for the world"

Tournament Taking Shape

Right after i posted the previous March Madness entry, i realized i had put it in the wrong blog.  "Thoughts About God and Man", huh?  Well, college basketball around these parts is a quasi-religion, where coaches are the messiahs, and the arenas are shrines.

No change at the top this week, with 3 ACC teams still in the top 4.

Compared to the RPI (even more flawed than usual this year), Sagarin looks more favorably on the Big 10 and the ACC, and less favorably on the Big East.

For Duke, the key to a long run will be the play of our disappointing enigma - Shavlik Randolph.  He went on a tear in last year's tourney, and he could certainly do it again.  Also, should we make it to the Final Four, we hope to have PG Sean Dockery back, and we'd need him to beat a team like Illinois.

New Musical Discovery

In the my long line of musical "discoveries", including Alison Krauss, Dixie Chicks, and The Waiting, i offer the latest:  Taylor Sorensen.

In his own words, "my music is about love, the love that let the nails go through the hands of Jesus.  That love applies to a kiss or to serving in an AIDS-stricken country or to playing music. It's a love that makes these things holy, that makes them sacred, that makes them the gospel. It's a love that's revolutionary because the gospel is revolutionary."

Vocally, the Michigan native has been likened a bit to Bono (U2).  Musically, his songs have Brit pop/rock flavorings, with one critic calling it "reformed American rock with a European soul."

The Overflow - link to the album on Amazon